Analysing and forecasting co-movement between innovative and traditional financial assets based on complex network and machine learning

We study the co-movement between innovative financial assets (i.e., FinTech-related stocks, green bonds and cryptocurrencies) and traditional assets. We construct a co-movement mode transmission network and discuss the network topology during the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods. We extract network topology information to predict the co-movement mode by machine learning algorithms. We further propose dynamic trading strategies based on the co-movement mode prediction. The empirical results show that (i) the evolution of co-movement is dominated by some key modes, and the mode transmission relies on intermediate modes and shows certain periodicity;(ii) the co-movement relationships are influenced by the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak;and (iii) the novel approach, which combines complex network and machine learning, is superior in co-movement mode prediction and can effectively bring diversification benefits. Our work provides valuable insights for market participants.

Efficacy of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine for Treating COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of RCTs.

Background: Integrated Chinese and Western medicine (integrated medicine) is routinely used in the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. In this study, we undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis of published randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to evaluate the efficacy of integrated medicine therapy for patients with COVID-19. Methods: In this meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, SinoMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Chongqing VIP (CQVIP), and Wanfang databases from inception to April 12, 2021, to identify RCTs of integrated medicine in the treatment of COVID-19. The quality of RCTs was assessed by the Cochrane risk of bias tool. RevMan v5.3 and Stata software packages were used for statistical analysis. Results: Nineteen RCTs involving 1,853 patients met our inclusion criteria. Compared with patients treated by conventional Western medicine (CWM), patients treated by integrated medicine have a higher overall effective rate [RR = 1.17, 95% CI: (1.10, 1.26), p < 0.00001], fever disappearance rate [RR = 1.25, 95% CI: (1.04, 1.50), p = 0.02], fatigue disappearance rate [RR = 1.28, 95% CI: (1.00, 1.63), p = 0.05], and chest CT improvement rate [RR = 1.24, 95% CI: (1.14, 1.34), p < 00001]. Beneficial effects of the integrated medicine therapy were also seen in C-reactive protein (CRP) level [WMD = -4.14, 95% CI: (-6.38, -1.91), p = 0.0003] and white blood cell (WBC) count [WMD = 0.35, 95% CI: (0.11, 0.58), p = 0.004]. Subgroup analyses showed that, when the treatment time is <2 weeks, the effect of integrated medicine treatment is more obvious in improving the overall effective rate, clinical symptoms (fever, fatigue, and cough), the CRP level, and WBC count compared with that of the CWM treatment. For patients with severe and non-severe COVID-19, integrated medicine is more effective in improving fever and cough symptoms and WBC count than using CWM alone. Conclusion: The results of the current meta-analysis suggested that the integrated medicine can improve the clinical symptoms, chest CT and infection indicators of COVID-19 patients. Even if the treatment time is <2 weeks, the effect of integrated medicine in improving symptoms is more obvious compared with the treatment of CWM. However, the results should be interpreted cautiously due to the heterogeneity among the studies.

Effect analysis of meteorological conditions on air quality during the winter COVID-19 lockdown in Beijing

The influence of meteorological conditions on the pollution processes was investigated in this study by analyzing the changes of air quality as well as the characteristics of two persistent heavy pollution episodes during the Coronavirus Disea se 2019（COVID-19） prevention（January 24 to February 29） of 2020 winter compared with the same period of 2015～2019. Cold air intensity in 2020 winter was weaker with the cold surges frequency decreased by 50%. Air temperature was 0.73℃ higher, and wind speed and mixed layer height were 17.8% and 32.5% lower, respectively. Relative humidity and dew point temperature increased by 60. 9% and 48.1%, respectively. Northerly wind frequency reduced 7.5% while both of southerly and easterly wind increased 6.0%. As shown above, all meteorological conditions in 2020 winter were significantly more favorable for air pollution than the same historical period. Moreover, two heavy pollution episodes（January 24～29 and February 8～14） lasted for 59 and 75 hours were analyzed. At the cumulative stage, regional transport that can be divided into east and south channel greatly affected PM2.5, with the contribution of 70% and 58% for two episodes. By contrast, the contribution of local pollution was 67% and 48%, respectively, indicating the increased proportion of hygroscopic growth and secondary generation in the maintenance and aggravation stages. Under the meteorological background of "high humidity and high atmospheric stability", the combined effects of atmospheric vertical dynamics and horizontal convergence accumulated PM2.5 and water vapor in Beijing plain and prevented them from spreading beyond the boundary layer. Further bidirectional feedback between increased pollutants and meteorological factor s in stable boundary layer resulting in aggravation of pollution. According to EMI index, meteorological conditions during the epi demic prevention in 2020 winter caused an increase of 70.1% in PM2.5 concentration compared to pre-COVID-19. Emissions reduction caused by emergency measures for COVID-19 lockdown offset 53% of the adverse impact induced by meteorological conditions. As for the two episodes in 2020 winter, EMI was 26.9% and 19.7% larger than the average of other nine episodes in the correspond ing period of 2015～2019, and PM2.5 concentration was basically unchanged or slightly reduced. Overall, if the current social emission level is not changed, emission reduction caused by city blockade under special circumstances can only partially reduce the pollution concentration, however, cannot completely offset the adverse impact of meteorological conditions.

Chansu Injection Improves the Respiratory Function of Severe COVID-19 Patients (preprint)

Chansu and its major active constituent of bufalin have been reported to have broad-spectrum antiviral effects. This study aims to assess the efficacy of Chansu injection in treating patients with severe COVID-19. The patients diagnosed as severe or critical COVID-19 in The First People's Hospital of Jiangxia District, Wuhan, China from February 5 to March 5, 2020 were randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio to receive general treatment plus Chansu injection or only general treatment as the control group. The treatment course was 7 days. The changes of PaO2/FiO2 and ROX index indicating respiratory function, the white blood cell (WBC) count, peripheral blood mononuclear lymphocyte (PBML) count, respiratory support step-down time (RSST), and safety indicators for the 7th day were retrospectively analyzed. After 7 days treatment, the oxygenation index was improved in 20 of 21 patients (95.2%) in the treatment group, as compared with 13 of 19 patients (68.4%) in the control group. The PaO2/FiO2 and ROX indices in the treatment group (mean, 226.27 and 14.01 respectively) were significantly higher than the control group (mean, 143.23 and 9.64 respectively). The RSST was 1 day shorter in the treatment group than the control group. Multivariate regression analysis suggested that Chansu injection contributed the most to the outcome of PaO2/FiO2. No obvious adverse effects were observed. Preliminary data showed that Chansu injection had apparent efficacy in treating patients with severe COVID-19.

Effects of methylprednisolone use on viral genomic nucleic acid negative conversion and CT imaging lesion absorption in COVID-19 patients under 50 years old.

The use of corticosteroids has been controversial in viral pneumonia. In most cases, application of methylprednisolone in severe and critical viral pneumonia patients can quickly alleviate the symptoms of dyspnea and prevent disease progression. However, some scholars have confirmed that corticosteroids delayed the body's clearance of the virus. In our retrospective non-randomized study, 34 patients under 50 years old and diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) were included. According to the given methylprednisolone treatment (n = 18) or not (n = 16), they were separated into two groups. By comparing the clinical data we concluded that corticosteroids therapy can effectively release COVID-19 symptoms such as persistent fever and difficult in breathing, improve oxygenation, and prevent disease progression. However, it can prolong the negative conversion of nucleic acids.

A follow-up study of children infected with SARS-CoV-2 from Western China (preprint)

Background: To clarify the characteristic and the duration of positive nucleic acid in children infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), including asymptomatic children. Methods: A total of 32 children confirmed with SARS-CoV-2 infection between January 24 and February 12, 2020 from four provinces in Western China were enrolled in this study and followed up until discharge and quarantine 14 days later. Results: Eleven children (34%) were asymptomatic, among whom six children had normal computed tomographic (CT) scan images. Age and gender were not associated with clinical symptoms or the results of CT scan in children infected with SARS-CoV-2. The concentrations of white blood cells and neutrophils were higher in children with asymptomatic infection than in children with clinical symptoms or CT abnormalities. Patients who presented with CT abnormalities had lower D-dimer or lower total bilirubin than those who had normal CT scan but clinical symptoms. All children recovered and no one died or was admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). The mean duration of positive SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid was 15.4 (SD=7.2) days and similar for both asymptomatic children and children with symptoms or CT abnormalities. We found a significant negative correlation between the lymphocyte count and the duration of positive nucleic acid test. Conclusions: Children with asymptomatic infection should be quarantined for the same duration as symptomatic patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. The clinical significance and mechanism behind the negative correlation between the number of lymphocytes and the duration of positive SARS-CoV-2 needs further study.

Serological diagnostic kit of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using CHO-expressed full-length SARS-CoV-2 S1 proteins (preprint)

WHO has declared COVID-19 a pandemic with more than 300,000 confirmed cases and more than 14,000 deaths. There is urgent need for accurate and rapid diagnostic kits. Here we report the development and validation of a COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 S1 serology ELISA kit for the detection of total anti-virus antibody (IgG+IgM) titers in sera from either the general population or patients suspected to be infected. For indirect ELISA, CHO-expressed recombinant full length SARS-CoV-2-S1 protein with 6*His tag was used as the coating antigen to capture the SARS-CoV-2-S1 antibodies specifically. The specificity of the ELISA kit was determined to be 97.5%, as examined against total 412 normal human sera including 257 samples collected prior to the outbreak and 155 collected during the outbreak. The sensitivity of the ELISA kit was determined to be 97.5% by testing against 69 samples from hospitalized and/or recovered COVID-19 patients. The overall accuracy rate reached 97.3%. Most importantly, in one case study, the ELISA test kit was able to identify an infected person who had previously been quarantined for 14 days after coming into contact with a confirmed COVID-19 patient, and discharged after testing negative twice by nucleic acid test. With the assays developed here, we can screen millions of medical staffs in the hospitals and people in residential complex, schools, public transportations, and business parks in the epidemic centers of the outbreaks to fish out the "innocent viral spreaders", and help to stop the further spreading of the virus.